In gambling, the many must lose in order that the few may win

Weldon and Marlene raised chickens. If all went well, then in the fall of the year the chickens would be slaughtered, packaged and frozen.  Chicken dinners were enjoyed  throughout the coming year.  Things generally went well because good farming practices were followed. However, things going well on any farm was by no means a certainty.  Weather, disease, and other apparently random occurrences could turn good fortune to bad.  Farming has been, and still is a model example of gambling.  

During a recent Thanksgiving time visit with farming family, gambling was an unofficial discussion topic. Weldon and a brother debated the best time to sell their [soy]beans on the market. Beans, as well as many other commodities, have been impacted by the capricious nature of the Trump tariffs and the volatile relationship with China. China is one of the world's largest importers of soybeans.  Sell too early while trading tensions are elevated and the return will be less. If tensions relax and exports to China increase, then the same beans will return a greater profit if sold later. 

Because farming is a gamble the concept of a "first year holdback" was an interesting discussion. Basically holding back a years' earnings is a "self insurance plan" for a farmer. Unfortunate luck can be disastrous unless there are hedges or insurance to survive a bad year.

The picture at the beginning of this monthly update is a traditional windmill on the Sauder Historical Farm. The pictured barn is on the Wallace (Arlene's) farm. Both are near Napoleon, OH.

If one would believe Republicans, Democrats and health care providers, insurance companies are the villain in out of control health care costs. Insurance does add complexity, and further obscures transparency in health care costs. But the pivotal role of private insurance companies in out of control costs is dwarfed by mismanaged and out of control government insurance programs (like Social Security). The most recent example is again the ACA (Affordable Care Act). Like many legislative efforts (another recent example is The Inflation Reduction Act) the name represents the exact opposite of what the Act will accomplish. So the ACA is anything but affordable. 

Beyond just the healthcare arena, and whether government or private companies should be in control, is the question of "is insurance always prudent?" A "One Year Holdback" sounds prudent. Over priced pet insurance that leverages compassion against fear of loss, regardless the cost, may not be prudent. 

Selling protection from fear is big industry and big government today. Sadly even with increased sales fear levels don't seem to be decreasing. One might easily make the case that purchasing insurance is as additive as playing the slots. Insurance as a product to hedge against risk, has now become the gamble.